Expert Warns: Modern Housing Projects May Face Mass Deterioration Within 10–15 Years

Subsidized mortgage programs, while driving market demand, may be leading to a decline in housing quality due to rigid price caps, warns Qazaq Expert Club analyst Dilyara Seitnurova. According to the expert, the requirement to maintain housing prices within the limit of 350,000–400,000 tenge per square meter under state programs is forcing developers to cut costs aggressively.

Seitnurova argues that given the rising costs of construction materials, logistics, and labor, the actual cost of high-quality construction far exceeds the government-mandated price caps. To maintain a profit margin of 10–15%, companies are often left with no choice but to sacrifice quality.

"Developers save primarily on facade systems, thermal insulation, engineering networks, and elevator equipment. Instead of durable ventilated facades, cheaper 'wet facades' are used; high-quality pipes and pumping stations are replaced with unknown budget alternatives; and soundproofing barely meets minimum standards," the expert explains.

Such practices significantly increase the risk of structural and technical defects appearing within just 3 to 5 years of completion.

Data from the Bureau of National Statistics shows a steady annual increase in the index of construction and installation works. However, the price ceilings in state programs are indexed much slower.

This gap creates a high-pressure environment where:
 

• Construction is rushed to meet tight deadlines.
• Technological requirements are bypassed due to severe labor shortages.
• Material quality is downgraded to fit the slow-moving budget limits.

The expert warns that if the current approach remains unchanged, the country will face a housing stock in 10–15 years that requires massive capital repairs. This financial burden will ultimately fall on the state and the homeowners.

To mitigate these risks, Dilyara Seitnurova suggests:

• Linking price caps directly to the official index of construction material costs.
• Mandatory technical audits for all subsidized housing projects.
• Preferential interest rates for clients who purchase from developers with proven high-quality construction standards.