Experts Predict Exchange Rate May Reach 540 Tenge per Dollar by Year-End

Analysts at Halyk Finance have released a forecast suggesting that the Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) could depreciate to 540 per US dollar by the end of the year. This scenario is deemed probable if global oil prices decline to an average of $85 per barrel.

Currently, Brent crude is trading at approximately $101 per barrel. Market volatility remains high due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, specifically the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to impact global energy supply dynamics.

According to the experts, several domestic and external factors are putting pressure on the national currency. These include persistently high inflation rates, decreased activity from foreign investors in the government securities market, the strengthening of the global US Dollar Index (DXY), and a reduction in foreign currency sales from the National Fund.

Halyk Finance notes that the current relative strength of the tenge is likely temporary. The currency's performance for the remainder of the year will remain heavily dependent on fluctuations in oil and metal prices, geopolitical risks, and the monetary policies of Kazakhstan’s primary trading partners.