Peace Between Russia and Ukraine Unlikely This Year – European Intelligence Services

The heads of five European intelligence agencies have assessed the possibility of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine in 2026 as low. This was reported by Reuters, citing anonymous sources.

Intelligence representatives state that the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war immediately. According to the sources, Russian authorities are using ongoing negotiations with the U.S. as a tool of pressure to secure the lifting of sanctions and favorable trade deals. One source described the Geneva talks as a "theatrical performance.

The report highlights the following key goals for Russia:

• Leadership Change: The removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power.
• Neutral Zone: Transforming Ukraine into a neutral "buffer zone" between the West and Russia.

The Kremlin reportedly intends to split the negotiations into two tracks: ending the war and establishing bilateral economic agreements with the U.S. (sanction relief). According to The Economist, the Russian Security Council prepared a draft "grand bargain" on economic cooperation ahead of a meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska. These proposals are said to cater to the interests of both Trump and the Russian business elite.

The third round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. recently concluded in Geneva. Following the meeting:

• Russia’s Stance: Lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky described the discussions as "difficult but businesslike."
• Ukraine’s Stance: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted progress on the "military track," but emphasized that significant disagreements remain on political issues.

Previously, following a meeting in Abu Dhabi on February 4–5, the parties conducted a prisoner-of-war exchange in a "157 for 157" format.

According to Zelenskyy, Washington is pushing the parties to reach a peace agreement by June of this year. At the Munich Security Conference, the Ukrainian President expressed frustration that the U.S. is "too often" demanding concessions from Ukraine for the sake of peace.