Kazakhstan Expects Warmer Yet Volatile Weather in November

Kazhydromet projects above-average temperatures across most regions, accompanied by sudden cold snaps and winter snowfall later in the month.

Kazakhstan is heading into a November that will be generally milder than usual, though marked by frequent atmospheric fluctuations, according to the latest outlook from national weather service Kazhydromet. Average monthly temperatures are anticipated to hover 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above long-term climate norms across the majority of the nation, with only northwestern districts holding close to historical averages.

The month begins on a mild, dry note for most areas. Light precipitation will be confined primarily to northeastern and eastern zones, where night fog may also form. Daytime temperatures in Western, Southwestern, Southern, and Southeastern Kazakhstan will reach comfortable highs between +12°C and +22°C. Central, Northern, Northwestern, and Eastern regions will experience cooler conditions, with overnight values spanning −8°C to +5°C and afternoon highs ranging from +5°C to +13°C.

Weather dynamics will shift significantly around mid-first decade as an active Black Sea cyclone advances across the country. Western areas will see early rainfall transition into snow before the system sweeps eastward toward remaining territories. Southern districts can expect rain as the primary form of precipitation, alongside widespread warnings for fog, icy roads, and wind gusts reaching 15–28 m/s. By the close of the decade, temperatures will drop to 0°C…+5°C in the north, +8°C…+13°C in the south, and +2°C…+10°C in the west.

The second and third decades will feature marked thermal instability across all zones. Northern provinces will see nighttime readings swing between −13°C and +5°C, with daytime maximums ranging from −5°C to +10°C. Southern regions will fluctuate between −5°C and +10°C at night, warming to 0°C…+15°C by day. Mountainous sectors will record night readings from +2°C to −10°C and daytime values from +2°C to +10°C. On select nights, sharper frost spells could push temperatures down to −10°C…−18°C across northern, central, and eastern areas.

This unseasonably mild trend is expected to persist into the winter season. Preliminary forecasts indicate that December temperatures will remain roughly 2 degrees Celsius above average nationwide, with several regions likely recording higher precipitation totals than usual.