Kazakhstan’s Expected Exchange Rate at the Beginning of 2026

Financial experts have revised their short-term forecast for the tenge, which has been strengthening for the third consecutive month. According to AFC analysts, by early January 2026, the average US dollar rate may reach 517.1 tenge. The national currency is supported by currency sales from the National Bank and state-owned companies, the tax period, capital inflows from non-residents, and the regulator’s strict rhetoric.

The long-term forecast is less optimistic. In a year, the dollar could reach 553.6 tenge, according to market estimates. Key factors include declining export revenues, rising imports, and reduced transfers from the National Fund.

Inflation expectations, on the other hand, have worsened — experts predict it at 11.7%. Meanwhile, the National Bank is expected to maintain the base rate at 18% in January 2026. Analysts have also lowered their Brent oil price forecast to $62.6 per barrel and adjusted GDP growth projections.