How Much Will Apartment Prices Rise in Kazakhstan in 2026? Expert Forecast

According to specialists, the upward trend in Kazakhstan's real estate prices is expected to continue throughout this year. The primary drivers behind this growth are limited market supply and the implementation of new tax regulations.

Experts have characterized the recent sharp spike in real estate prices as an "artificial panic." Late last year, many developers raised prices for primary housing in anticipation of Value Added Tax (VAT) changes, which subsequently pushed up prices in the secondary market. This created a "buy before it gets more expensive" effect among consumers.

Key factors influencing the market in 2026 include:

• The Return of VAT: Starting this year, VAT has been reintroduced to the construction sector. While experts believe the full impact of this tax will be felt in 2027–2028 as new projects hit the market, developers are already gradually factoring these costs into current prices (at a rate of 2–3% per month).
• Reduced Supply: Last year, a significant portion of construction companies (approximately 62%) were temporarily forced out of the market after failing to meet new regulatory requirements. This has resulted in a shortage of new housing.
• The New Building Code: Stricter operational rules in the industry have altered the competitive landscape and increased the overall cost of construction.

Specific Expert Forecasts

International real estate expert Lev Tetin predicts that housing prices could rise by as much as 15% this year. Meanwhile, real estate specialist Alexander Pak notes that while a sudden 16% hike (matching the VAT rate) would cause sales to stall, companies are likely to raise prices speculatively and incrementally to avoid a market shock.

Overall, demand for housing in 2026 is expected to remain stable, with the total number of transactions projected to reach between 460,000 and 470,000 by the end of the year.